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Preventing deadly conflict over oil

Today our nation is divided, distracted, and consumed by war and the quest for absolute global military supremacy in large part because of our dangerous oil dependence. The U.S. and world are increasingly dependent on shrinking petroleum reserves that are concentrated in the most politically unstable parts of the world.

The U.S. is the world’s largest oil consumer. Oil is the largest source of energy used in the U.S. Our country’s transportation system, upon which the economy depends, is almost totally dependent on petroleum-based fuels. The U.S. is relying increasingly on imports to meet its needs, importing almost two-thirds of its oil from abroad today.

Oil demand is rising elsewhere, as well—especially in China, India, and the developing world.

Yet U.S. oil production has been declining, and global oil production is barely keeping up with demand. Few significant new reserves of conventional oil have been discovered in recent decades, and hence, the scramble is on by the major oil-importing countries (e.g. the U.S., EU, China, Japan, India) to secure access to the remaining global supplies.

This tight global oil market has become highly sensitive to supply disruptions. The risk of supply disruption is growing —whether due to war, civil strife, sabotage, labor strikes, market speculators, disruptions caused by the OPEC cartel, governments of oil-exporting countries, multinational oil companies, or hurricanes and accidents. When disruptions occur, prices soar, economic growth in import-dependent countries slows, and the poorest people and the poorest countries get hurt the most.

Consequently, petroleum insecurity increasingly has been a driving factor in U.S. foreign and military policy, leading to the militarization of U.S. foreign policies, dramatically increased U.S. military expenditures, threats of war, and war. Most of the conflicts in which the U.S. is engaged today are linked in some way to oil wealth, oil geo-politics, or oil dependence—from the war in Iraq, to the war in Afghanistan and the rise of al Qaeda, to the crisis in Darfur, to U.S. diplomatic confrontations with Iran and Venezuela. In the future, the U.S. and China, in particular, are on a collision course over oil.

If war is not the answer, what is?

The U.S. can and should choose a different path to human security. We in the U.S. have all the creativity, ingenuity, technology, and know-how today that are needed to end our dependence on oil and other fossil fuels. What we need are strong national policies that will encourage:

• Less driving and more public transit use, walking, biking, and car-pooling;
• Reducing consumption, reusing materials, and recycling;
• Making our cars and trucks much more fuel-efficient;
• Developing renewable biofuels from human, agricultural, and forestry waste;
• Expanding and improving public transit;
• Reducing the energy consumed by our homes and buildings;
• Developing new renewable energy and energy-saving technologies;
• Expanding the use of solar and wind power;
• Making our existing power plants and transmission systems more efficient;
• Making our appliances more efficient;
• Slowing population growth by investing in human development, and providing safe, effective, non-coercive, universal access to family planning services;
• Practicing no-till agriculture and expanding conservation reserves to absorb carbon;
• Reducing greenhouse-gas-intensive livestock production and meat consumption;
• Halting deforestation and planting new, permanent forests; and
• Working with other countries to do all of the same.

Steps such as these will dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and put the world well on its way toward a more secure and sustainable future.

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